El Mitengo yemafuta muEurope yakwira zvakanyanya munhoroondo mumaawa mashoma Zvichitevera shanduko yazvino mudambudziko reMiddle East, kumiswa kwekugadzirwa kwegasi rechisikigo rakanyungudutswa (LNG) muQatar pamwe nekukwira kwekusawirirana kwemauto kutenderera Strait of Hormuz zvakakonzera kutya mumisika yemagetsi yeEurope.
Munguva yemusangano mumwe chete, chiyero chikuru chekuenzanisa, chibvumirano cheTTF chinotengeswa muNetherlands, chasvika kuwedzera kukosha pakati pe40% ne50%, kubva pa30-32 €/MWh kusvika pa46-48 €/MWhDanho iri rinodzosera mitengo padanho risati ramboonekwa kubva pakutanga kwegore rapfuura uye rinodzosera mutengo wepeturu pakati pehurukuro dzezvehupfumi muEurope.
Kuputika kwezvematongerwo enyika kunozunungusa musika wegesi
Kukwira kwakatanga mushure mekunge Kurwiswa kwezvinangwa zveUS neIsrael muIran uye kutsiva kwakazotevera kweIran pamusoro pezvivakwa zvesimba zvakakosha muPersian Gulf. Pakati pezvinangwa pane Ras Laffan, nzvimbo huru yepasi rose yekutumira LNG kunze kwenyika, iri muQatar uye ine basa rekupa mafuta aya chikamu chimwe muzvishanu pasi rose.
QatarEnergy, kambani yehurumende, yazivisa kuti Kugadzirwa kwegasi rechisikigo rakanyungudutswa nezvimwe zvigadzirwa zvinoenderana nazvo kwamira kwenguva pfupi paRas Laffan neMesaieed complexes nekuda kwekurwiswa kwemadrone. Maawa mashoma mushure mekuziviswa uku, European TTF yakakwira pamusoro pe€48/MWh, huwandu hwayo hwepamusoro-soro mugore rinenge rimwe chete.
Kuvharwa kwezvivakwa hakusi kungori kunetseka kwemisika chete, asi mamiriro ezvinhu akafara: mukana wekuti mvura ivharirwe kwenguva refu kana kuti kukanganiswa kwakanyanya muStrait of Hormuznzvimbo yakakosha yekufambisa chikamu chikuru chekutengeserana kwehydrocarbon pasi rose. Iranian Revolutionary Guard yakawedzera kuvapo kwayo munzvimbo iyi, uye masosi akasiyana-siyana anotaura nezvekushungurudzwa nekurwiswa kwengarava dzevatengesi.
Mukufanana, Mitengo yemafuta yepakati nepakati yeBrent neWest Texas Mitengo yakakwira zvakare zvakanyanya, zvichikonzerwa nekutya kukanganiswa kwezvekutengeswa kwezvinhu kubva kuSaudi Arabia nevamwe vagadziri vezvinhu munharaunda iyi. Kunyange hazvo chinangwa chiri pagasi, mhedzisiro yesimba rose iri kuwedzera kuoma kwemaonero eEurope.
Kuwedzera kwakanyanya kwakanyorwa muTTF kunoyeuchidza mafambiro akaitika pazuva rekupinda kweRussia muUkraine, apo mitengo yepeturu yakakwira ne51% muzuva rimwe chete uye, mumavhiki akatevera, yakakwira kubva pa25 euros kusvika pamusoro pe300 €/MWh isati yadzokera zvishoma nezvishoma pa30.
Sei Europe iri panjodzi yekukundwa neQatar neHormuz?
Kurwiswa kwezvivakwa zveQatar kwauya panguva iyo Europe inonyanya kuvimba negasi rechisikigo rakanyungudutswa kupfuura hondo yeUkraine isati yatanga.Kudzikira kukuru kwemafuta anotengeswa kuRussia kuburikidza nemapaipi kwasimbisa basa revatengesi vegasi, United States, Qatar, Algeria, neNigeria dziri pakati penyika dzakakosha kumusika weEurope.
Pabhodhi iri, Qatar yazvisimbisa seimwe yemakambani makuru ekutengesa LNG kunze kwenyikaKutengeswa kwavo kunomiririra chikamu chimwe muzvishanu chekutengeserana kwegasi rakanyungudutswa pasi rose, uye chikamu chavo chemari inopinzwa muEuropean Union chinotangira pa7% kusvika pa15% yehuwandu hwese. Kunyangwe kukanganisa kwavo zvakananga kuSpain kuri kudiki, mhedzisiro pamitengo yakapararira, sezvo gasi richitengeswa mumusika uri kuwedzera pasi rose uye wakavhurika.
Nzvimbo inonyanya kuomesesa ndiyo Strait of Hormuz, dambudziko guru rinoita kuti 20%-30% yegasi rechisikigo rakanyungudutswa uye chikamu chimwe muzvishanu chemafuta anotakurwa negungwa apfuureKunyangwe Iran isina kuraira kuti ivharwe zviri pamutemo, kuwedzera kwekusagadzikana, kurwiswa kwengarava uye kubviswa kwekuchengetedzwa kwenzvimbo nemakambani einishuwarenzi kwakaita kuti ngarava dzinotakura mafuta neLNG dzisafambe nenzira iyi dzichitya kuva chinangwa chezvombo kana madrone.
Mamiriro ezvinhu aya anowedzera kusava nechokwadi nezvekusvika kwezvinhu zvinotumirwa kuEurope neAsia. Kana zvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika kubva kuQatar nevamwe vagadziri veGulf zvikaderera kana kuti zvikadhura zvakanyanya nekuda kwekusiyana kwemitengo uye njodzi dzinowedzeraMutengo wegesi muEurope unokurumidza kukanganiswa, sezvatoonekwa muTTF nedzimwe nzvimbo dzakadai seBritish NBP.
Kune maindasitiri nedzimba dzekuEurope, kusagadzikana uku kunoreva kukwira kwemitengo yemagetsi sezvo nyika zhinji dzaiedza kusimbisa kurongeka kwemitengo mushure mekushamisika kwa2022. Kusawirirana kukuru kwezvematongerwo enyika, kuvimba nemafuta anotengeswa kunze kwenyika, uye nzvimbo dzekuchengetera mafuta dzisina chinhu kupfuura zvakajairika Izvi zvinogadzira mamiriro ezvinhu akaomarara zvakanyanya.
Maitiro eTTF achangoburwa uye mhedzisiro yawo paSpain neEU
Mumavhiki apfuura kusvika pakukura kuri kuitika, maitiro emusika akanga atoratidza kutya. Muna Kukadzi, Mitengo yemafuta muEurope yakakwira kubva pa29,8 € kusvika pa35,7 €/MWh Zvichienderana nezvibvumirano zvakabvumiranwa paICE, kukwirira kwemitengo kwakabatana nekuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze uye nhau dzezvematongerwo enyika dzine chekuita nemigwagwa yeUnited States, Iran, neLNG.
Pakutanga kwemwedzi, mitengo yakawedzera kusvika paavhareji €35,7/MWh pakati pekufanotaura kwekutonhora kwakanyanya uye kuwedzera kwekushandiswa kwegasi kugadzira magetsiMushure mezvo, mamiriro ezvinhu akadzikira kwenguva pfupi kusvika pa €29-30/MWh, zvichitsigirwa nemamiriro ekunze asina kutonhora uye tarisiro yekuwanikwa kwakanyanya kwegasi rekuAmerica rekutengesera kunze kwenyika.
Zvisinei, mwedzi pawaifamba, kusava nechokwadi kwakadzoka. Kusawirirana pakati peWashington neTehran uye kutyisidzira kwekufamba kwezvinhu neHormuz Vakadzorerazve kusagadzikana, vachisundira TTF pasi kusvika pa €32/MWh panosvika Kukadzi 20. Mumazuva ekupedzisira emwedzi, zvimwe zviratidzo zvekuvandudzika kwemutengo zvakabvumira kudzikira kwemitengo, kusvika kurwiswa kweRas Laffan kwaputsa kuenzana kwacho kusina kusimba.
Mugumisiro wacho wave kuchinja kwemamiriro ezvinhu kamwe kamwe: Kubva munzvimbo yakagadzikana iri pakati pe30-34 €/MWh, yangoerekana yakwira kusvika pa46-48 €/MWh, nekuwedzera kwe40%-50% mukati mezuva, izvo zviri pakati pekuwedzera kukuru kwezuva nezuva kwakanyorwa mumusika uyu kubva pakutanga kwehondo muUkraine.
Kune Spain, iyo yakachinja-chinja huwandu hwayo hwemafuta nemafuta anotengeswa kubva kuAlgeria, Nigeria, United States nedzimwe nzvimbo, pamusoro pekusimudzira mapurojekiti mu biomethaneKukanganisa uku kunonyanya kuoneka kuburikidza nemitengo yezvitoro zvemuEurope. Kunyangwe huremu hwakananga hweQatar mukutenga kweSpain hushomaSisitimu yegesi yenyika yakabatanidzwa zvizere mumusika wenharaunda, saka chero kukwira kwakanyanya kweTTF kunozopedzisira kwakanganisa bhiri remagetsi, kumakambani nevatengi.
Matura ekuEurope ari padanho repamusoro uye njodzi yekuwedzera kwemitengo kwenguva refu
Zvematongerwo enyika hazvisirizvo zvega zvinokanganisa mafungiro evashandi. Huwandu hwegasi rinochengetwa muEuropean Union parizvino huri pasi pe31% yehuwandu hwaro hwese., nhamba iri pasi pe40% yakanyorwa panguva ino gore rapfuura, zvichienderana nedata kubva kumapuratifomu akasiyana-siyana.
Nyika dzakakosha pakuenzana kwehurongwa, dzakadai seGermany neFrance, dziripo kubhukinga kuri pakati pe20%-21%MuGermany, nzvimbo dzekuchengetera zvinhu dzinenge 20,5%, nepo muFrance dzinenge 21%. Aya ndiwo mazinga akaderera ekupera kwechando, kunyangwe njodzi yekushaikwa kwezvirimwa nekukurumidza ishoma kana mamiriro ekunze akasanyanya kuipa; kusiyanisa zvirimwa muzvirimwa. biogas zvinogona kubatsira mukupa simba rekutsungirira.
Dambudziko riri muchikamu chepakati nepakati: Kana matura asina chinhu pakupera kwemwaka wekutonhora, zvichava zvakaoma uye zvinodhura kuazadzazve munguva yechando inotevera.Vaongorori vakaita saNorman Liebke wekuCommerzbank vanoti huwandu hwemafuta anotorwa hwaderera zvichienderana nekuvandudzwa kwemamiriro ekunze, asi vanosimbisa kuti dambudziko rekuwedzera mafuta muzvitoro richiri guru.
Mishumo yakati wandei inobvumirana kuti, pakupera kwaKurume, Mari dzakachengetwa muEurope dzinogona kusvika padanho rakaderera munhoroondoIzvi zvaizoda kuti pave nekurwisa kwakasimba mumwedzi inodziya. Kana mitengo yepeturu ikaramba yakakwira muchirimo nemuzhizha, basa iri richadhura zvakanyanya kune vatengesi, mabhizinesi, uye pakupedzisira, vashandisi vekupedzisira.
Uyewo, chero kuwedzera kwehondo muPersian Gulf kana kukanganiswa kwenguva refu muHormuz Izvi zvinogona kuwedzera kuoma kwemaitiro acho nekuderedza kuwanikwa kweLNG pasi rose uye kuita kuti zvibvumirano zvitsva zvenguva refu zvinotsvakwa nevatambi vazhinji vekuEurope zvidhure.
Zviri kutaurwa nevaongorori nezvemitengo yepeturu muEurope
Makambani ekutsvagisa nemabhanga ekudyara mari atanga kugadzirisa mamiriro avo ezvinhu. Makambani akaita seGoldman Sachs anoratidza kuti, kana Kusagadzikana muStrait of Hormuz kwagara kwemwedzi mumwe cheteMitengo yemafuta muEurope inogona kupetwa kaviri kubva padanho razvino, izvo zvaizoisa TTF pamusoro pe €60/MWh.
Mamwe masangano emari, akadai seING, ari kutarisawo pamafuta, vachifungidzira kuti Brent crude inogona kukwira kusvika pamadhora zana pabharero Uye mumamiriro ezvinhu akaomarara ane kukanganiswa kwakanyanya uye kwenguva refu kwemagetsi, inogona kusvika $140. Kunyangwe izvi zvichireva mafuta asina kucheneswa, kukanganisa kwegasi uye kukwira kwemitengo kwakawanda kwaizove kwakakosha zvakaenzana.
Vatariri vezvinhu zvinotengeswa vanoyambira kuti Hukama huripo pakati penguva yekusawirirana nekufamba kwemitengo hauna kurongeka.Kuvharwa kwechikamu kwevhiki imwe kana mbiri kunogona kutorwa nekushandisa mari yaichengetwa uye kuronga patsva zvinhu zvinotumirwa, asi kuvharwa kwese kwemwedzi kana kupfuura kwaizomanikidza kuparadzwa kukuru kwekudiwa kwezvinhu, zvichisundira mitengo munzvimbo dzakakwira zvikuru.
Mumamiriro ezvinhu akadaro, Europe inotarisana nekuenzana kwakasimba: kudzora kukanganisa mabhiri emagetsi pasina kukanganisa kuchengetedzeka kwemagetsiUnited States ndiyo inoramba iri iyo inonyanya kupa gasi mukondinendi, ukuwo Algeria, Nigeria, Norway, uye, zvishoma, Russia, zvichiri kuramba zvichipedzisa kutengeswa kwemafuta anotengeswa kunze kwenyika. Kunyangwe zvakadaro, huremu hwePersian Gulf LNG mumusika wepasi rose zvinoreva kuti kusawirirana ikoko kunokanganisa zvakanyanya muEurope.
Mhedzisiro yacho ichaenderana nekuti vanhu vanofamba neHormuz vanodzoka sei pakare, uye kuti vanokwanisa kufamba sei. kutumira zvinhu kubva kune dzimwe nzvimbo uye kufambira mberi kwekudiwa muAsia neNorth America, idzo dzinokwikwidzana zvakananga neEurope kuti dziwane huwandu hwakafanana hwegasi rakanyungudutswa.
Zvose zviri kuitika, kukwira kwemutengo wegesi muEurope kunoratidza musanganiswa wekushamisika kwezvematongerwo enyika, kusasimba nekuda kwehuwandu hwakaderera hwemari inochengeterwa uye kuwedzera kuvimba neLNG, iyo iri kuyedza zvakare kusimba kwehupfumi hweEurope uye kuisa mabhiri emagetsi emhuri nemabhizinesi mukutarisa kwemwedzi iri kuuya.
